FSU-GSM Forecast Error Sensitivity to Initial Conditions: Application to Indian Summer Monsoon

Yanqiu Zhu, I. M. Navon

The full-physics adjoint of the FSU Global Spectral Model of version T42L12 was applied to carry out sensitivity analysis of the localized model forecast error to the initial conditions for a case test occurring on June 8, 1988 during the Indian summer monsoon. The results show that adjoint sensitivity based on ECMWF analysis can be used to identify regions with large analysis uncertainties. The conclusion is that more observations are required over the northern Bay of Bengal to improve the quality of analyses so as to ameliorate the model forecast skill.